Potential for Overshooting 1.5°C Puts Adaptation in the COP Spotlight

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Potential for Overshooting 1.5°C Puts Adaptation in the COP Spotlight

COP 30, the United Nations’ annual climate negotiations, wrapped up late November, leaving many parties frustrated with what they see as limited or disjointed progress towards implementation of climate goals. Despite the difficulties in building consensus on how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, or perhaps even partly due to them, the topic of climate adaptation received increased attention.

The high level political text resulting from the conference, the “Global Mutirão,” calls for efforts to triple adaptation finance by 2035. This recognition of the importance of climate adaptation by all 195 participating countries is a clear signal of the political consensus behind the need to adapt to unavoidable changes. Meanwhile, negotiators formally acknowledged the likelihood of an “overshoot” of 1.5°C for the first time. 

Adaptation Finance Still Lacking

However, the language regarding adaptation finance was weakened by pushing the timeline of a tripling of finance back to 2035 (instead of 2030) and with targets remaining far lower than expected need, especially in developing countries.

Source: PwC, UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2025

The challenges in scaling up public sector financing for adaptation underscore the need for other sources of capital, both from an impact standpoint and private-interests perspective, where the lack of public adaptation finance makes private assets more vulnerable.

Indicators to Track Adaptation Implementation

COP 30 also saw substantive progress in the development of a set of indicators for the Global Goal for Adaptation. The 59 indicators provide a framework for countries to track progress preparing water, health, infrastructure, agriculture and natural systems for the impacts of climate change. This latest set of indicators is substantially pared down from the more complex and nuanced set of 100+ indicators proposed by a group of technical experts over the past two years. Many expect the indicators to see further refinements over future COPs. 

New Collaborations to Accelerate Adaptation Finance 

Two new initiatives focus on strengthening collaboration between the public and the private sectors. The National Adaptation Plan Implementation Alliance announced its new program, Fostering Investable National Planning and Implementation (FINI) for Adaptation and Resilience at COP. This program intends to “effectively showcase private sector innovations and tools, create ‘financial sandboxes’ to pilot deals, foster innovation, deliver adaptation investments at scale, and set shared principles and goals for governments, financial institutions, and international partners.” 

Meanwhile The Investors Resilience Challenge, launched last month by the Adaptation and Resilience Investors Collaborative, aims to eliminate barriers to development finance institution and private sector collaboration on adaptation and resilience. 

As the need for private adaptation finance is increasingly evident, dedicated funds like Tailwind Futures lay the foundations to identify investable opportunities in adaptation and resilience and scale private capital flows.

Tailwind Futures Updates

Recent Events

We recently hosted a roundtable discussion in Tokyo on Climate Adaptation & Resilience: The Next Frontier for Investors. The event was co-hosted by Tailwind Futures, Environmental Energy Investment at 0 Club (Mitsubishi Estate), featuring a talk from Emilie Mazzacurati on venture investment opportunities in climate adaptation and resilience and a startup showcase from QFF (Quantum Flowers & Foods), a biotechnology startup using neutron breeding for rapid biological climate adaptation in plants.

ClimateTech Connect Event Discount

Tailwind Futures is proud to partner once again with ClimateTech Connect,  “Where Climate Resilience Meets Technological Innovation” at its annual flagship conference April 8th-9th 2026 in Washington D.C. 

Click here to register and use code: tailwindVIP for 25% off ticket prices.

Fellowships, Accelerators and Prizes

  • The Trust for Governors Island in New York announced the launch of its third annual Climate Solutions Challenge, this year centered on the theme of Adaptation: How can urban adaptation solutions equip communities to stay safe and healthy, minimize disruptions to essential services, and improve everyday life for residents?
    • Participants receive rent-free physical space on Governors Island NYC, valuable technical support, visibility through events and marketing, and networking opportunities designed to connect participants with funders, investors, customers, and the public.
    • Webinars: December 16 and January 7 at 3PM Click here to RSVP
    • Piloting Opportunities Tour: December 17 at 10AM Click here to RSVP
    • Application Deadline: January 21, 2026, by 5PM
    • Challenge Winners Notified: March 2026
  • SAP and Top Tier Impact are starting the Global Water Challenge to find the best innovation in the space. They will also host a Davos event on water resilience & efficiency in January 2026.
    • The Challenge is looking for startup innovators that can boost water efficiency & resilience across industries such as agriculture, retail, utilities, technology, real estate and manufacturing.
    • Sound familiar? You can nominate a startup or submit your own startup here
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